As we've said before, a good strategy for early detection of an invasion is to consider the risk of invasion. By modelling the environmental suitability of Europe for the Japanese beetle (Popillia japonica) and therefore the risk of its establishment, our INRAE team has laid the first building block of a surveillance strategy. This work has recently been published (Borner et al., 2023; https://doi.org/10.1127/entomologia/2023/2073) and we describe the main results here.